Statistics for greenhouse gas emissions are currently published on an annual basis with delays of several months for the preliminary numbers and about a year for the final ones. The data is reported to the EU and the UN even later. While quick estimates are increasingly used to outline trends, the delay in reporting is still significant, and the quick estimates have often been shown to provide an overly rough, and sometimes even completely inaccurate, picture of the actual situation. There is also a growing need to assess the effects of different measures on emissions with as little delay as possible, preferably in real-time. It can be difficult to balance these different interests. At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in spring 2020, various attempts were made to estimate how the lockdown of large parts of society would affect emissions. As official statistics have started to flow in for 2020, it is now possible to assess how accurate the quick estimates have been compared to the actual outcome.
The purpose of the project
The purpose of this NME project is to map out which types of indicators and methods of calculation have been used in studies and reports published in recent years and would be relevant from a Nordic point of view. This will provide a quick overview of the current trend for greenhouse gas emissions, in particular carbon dioxide. The project must include a sector-based review of data sources that could be useful. This work must also include reasoning about the advantages and disadvantages of calculating emission statistics within a shorter time frame and about the situations in which short-term emission statistics would be most relevant and useful.
The mapping of possible indicators and methods of calculation must include:
- A review of the current situation and an evaluation of the opportunities for the Nordic countries to use different indicators and calculation models to make rapid estimates.
- An evaluation of the methods that would need to be developed in order to obtain estimates with as great certainty as possible.
- The connection, from an environmental-economic point of view, between economic and other activity in society on the one hand and emission trends on the other, is also of interest. A decoupling would cause difficulties in making emission assessments based on economic data, something that the report can also discuss.
The project report must contain proposals and recommendations on the development of methods and in what ways rapid estimates and estimates of trends could be used to supplement official Nordic statistics.
The budget framework for the project is DKK 300,000 (incl. VAT). This includes standard project expenses as well as travel and communications.
Applications must be submitted to NME no later than 10 June 2021. All documents must be submitted by this deadline. Material received after this date will not be taken into consideration. A decision will be made in June, and all applicants will be informed of it. The date for the final report will be set in the project contract.
Applications must be e-mailed to the NME administrative body (firstname.lastname@example.org). The project description/application form and compulsory budget form must all be in one of the Nordic languages. Applications must cite the registration number EPOELY/1277/2021
Feel free to submit additional appendices (max. 10–15 x A4 pages) describing in greater detail the factors that the working groups should consider in our evaluation, e.g. a separate project description. Send any CVs jointly in a single separate file.
When assessing applications, the emphasis will be on:
- the structure and planning of the work, including methodology and how relevant data will be collected and processed
- the timetable
- the allocation of responsibilities and time, general competencies and qualifications of those managing and involved in the project
- the applicant’s previous experience in the area
- the Nordic contacts and networks that will be used in the project and fluency in the Nordic languages
- the expenditure for the proposed project period, including hourly rates and other expenses
- the communications plan for the project.
NME will assess the applications and choose the successful one. The working group reserves the right to reject all applications.
See appendix: “Anbudsinbjudan_Klimatindikatorer_NME_LONG.docx” for further details about project content and financing requirements.