The impact of COVID-19 and recovery packages on emission pathways to 2030

Inputs to the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2021 Final project report


Globally, the opportunity to use COVID-19 fiscal rescue and recovery spending to accelerate the low-carbon transition has largely been missed so far: the share of low-carbon fiscal spending ranges between 0.5%–2.5% in studies considering both rescue and recovery spending and 18%–30% for studies considering recovery spending alone. This report analyses the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated rescue and recovery packages on greenhouse gas emissions to 2030, focusing on three main aspects: 1) What happened to activities and greenhouse gas emissions in 2020, and what are the preliminary estimates for 2021?2) How did the 2020 and 2021 emissions changes affect pathways through to 2030?3) What is the expected impact of fiscal recovery packages on emissions through to 2030?