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Summary of the programme - Marine Management and Climate
The programme Marine Management and Climate 2021-2024 is linked to the Nordic Council of Ministers' Vision 2030 and the strategic priority "a green Nordic region". The programme will primarily contribute to activities mentioned under goal 2 (Contribute to the safeguarding of biodiversity and the sustainable use of the Nordic region’s nature and seas) in the action plan for 2021 to 2024. Furthermore, the programme is in line with the Programme for Nordic Co-operation on the Environment and Climate 2019–2024.
The vision project has three work packages (WP): WP1 - Climate change in Nordic sea areas towards 2100, WP2 - Adaptation to climate change in Nordic sea and coastal areas, with focus on Skagerrak and finally WP3 - A conference on marine management and climate in the fall of 2022.
A steering committee led by the Ministry of Climate and Environment in Norway and with participants from all Nordic countries and autonomous regions has been established for the programme. The Steering Committee will oversee the implementation of the programme according to plans.
Reports from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that climate change will have major consequences both for the sea and for our use of it. The IPCC has simulated expected effects and risk for different oceans as a result of climate change in different emission scenarios until the year 2100. Globally, biological production is expected to decline in the seas due to ocean heating. At the same time, habitats of the species will be shifted towards the poles.
We already witness the effects of climate change in the Nordic sea areas. There is a need for more knowledge about what global predictions mean for the Nordic sea areas and to use the knowledge as a basis for choosing management measures to adapt to the climate changes expected in the future.
The IPCC’s sixth assessment report part 1 on physical climate change - the scientific basis, uses five selected emission scenarios that are intended to illustrate the span of possible futures and development of man-made climate change.
The sixth assessment report provides for the first time a more detailed assessment of regional climate change. These are large regions (e.g. Northern Europe, the North Atlantic, Greenland and Iceland), but not detailed in the individual Nordic sea areas.
In this WP, we want to scale down the global emission scenarios to Nordic seas and coastal areas, to model the consequences for the ecosystems and analyze and the effects emission scenarios could have both for the ecosystems and for society.
The purpose of WP1 of the programme Marine Management and Climate is to
increase knowledge of the expected effects of climate change and ocean acidification in all the Nordic sea areas, given projections of the IPCC's emission scenarios until the year 2100.
The goal is to give the Nordic region a better knowledge base with results from presented downscaling and modelling of the consequences from various global emission scenarios until the year 2100. Henceforth the countries individually and in cooperation can make more accurate decisions about comprehensive and climate-adapted marine management in the future. For example - What effects will possible future climate change have on the Nordic sea areas? What challenges will this pose for marine management? How can the Nordic countries co-operate on sustainable marine management that protects biological diversity and biological productivity?
Decription of work package 1
The Steering Committee for the programme marine management and climate invites tenders for the work package 1: Climate change in Nordic sea areas towards 2100 - as described below.
Part 1: Literature survey
Provide an overview of relevant previous and ongoing studies in the Nordic sea areas with regard to proven and expected effects of climate change in sea and coastal areas.
It is important to compile relevant knowledge both from IPCC AR6 WG 1 and from work under the auspices of the individual Nordic countries, the Nordic Council of Ministers, the Arctic Council and the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES). Furthermore, it is desirable to get an overview of what has been done so far regarding downscaling the global climate models and scenarios for effects in the Nordic sea and coastal areas. Among other things, activities in fishery cooperation under the Nordic Council of Ministers is relevant, e.g. the TemaNord report TN2014:515: Fisheries Management and Global Warming - Effects of climate change on fisheries in the Arctic region of the Nordic countries. Relevant knowledge is the ongoing work at research institutes in Norway and Sweden.
Regarding the Baltic Sea, there is relevant information in the Baltic Earth Assessment Reports - BEAR. Regarding the North Sea, the book North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment is a possible source. Furthermore, ICES Ecosystem Overviews are also relevant. The reports from ICES are divided by ecoregion and include status, development and projections on the effects of climate change, also in terms of consequences for the most important human activities.
This literature survey will result in a synthesis report that both stands on its own about climate change in the Nordic sea areas, as well as to serve as a starting compilation for assessing the consequences of various global emission scenarios until the year 2100 in part 2 of work package 1.
The report from the literature survey is intended to be a maximum of 30 pages. The results should be presented in an accessible way also for non-experts.
Part 2: How will climate change and ocean acidification affect Nordic sea areas until year 2100
a) Downscaling global climate models (IPCC / CMIP6) to all Nordic sea areas (physical parameters)
Research environments in the Nordic countries use several regional models to scale down the global emission scenarios from the IPCC and how they will affect the Nordic sea and coastal areas. It is important to use different models to include the spread found and how these describe the future climate.
The regional models will run until the years 2050 and 2100 and will provide information on physical parameters related to sea climate (such as sea surface temperature, seawater salinity, sea ice distribution, sea level, circulation and depth of mixed layers) in the Nordic sea and coastal areas. This is desired for the emission scenarios low (SSP1-2.6), medium (SSP2-4.5) and high (SSP3-7.0). “Low” corresponds approximately to the 2-degree target and an ambitious climate policy. “Medium” corresponds roughly to where the world is headed in the light of decided policies. “High” corresponds to a world with reduced climate ambitions and can be shown to concretize risks in the event of less successful climate work / major climate change. Based on the scaling down of these scenarios, maps and graphs will be made, showing the development of the physical variables for each of the Nordic sea areas and any sub-regions in each sea area. The results will be used in part b of the project.
b) Ecosystem modelling (biogeochemical models)
Ecosystem models (biogeochemical models) are to be run when they comply to the connection or use the input from the physical downscaling (part a). It will be an advantage to use several different ecosystem models. The modelling will for the same time period and emission scenarios provide information on, for example, acidity / pH in the sea surface, oxygen level and primary and secondary production, and as far as possible population development for species at higher trophic levels. These results will primarily form the basis for the risk analysis in part c), the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems.
c) Assessment of the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems
The result from the models run in parts 2a) and b) and the literature survey in part 1 are used to make an overall assessment of possible consequences of climate change on the marine ecosystems until the year 2100. Here we want to get an assessment, based on modelling of scenarios for 2050 and 2100 and other available knowledge. Also the risk of direct and indirect effects from climate change and ocean acidification on marine ecosystems and marine economy. This should be used as a common knowledge base for management decisions on adaptations to climate change in the Nordic sea and coastal areas.
In this assessment, it is also relevant to use ICES Ecosystem Overviews as a basis for the work.
If the report on climate change and ecosystem effects (under different emission scenarios), which is planned to be prepared through the Arctic Council 2022-2024 (cooperation between AMAP and CAFF), is available, information from this shall be included in the assessment.
These are absolute requirements that must be met in order to proceed in the tendering process:
- The supplier must be a legally established company (company certificate required) and
have experience in carrying out projects.
- The supplier should have experience from similar projects of relevance.
- The supplier should have sufficient execution capacity.
All public research institutes, national authorities and universities in the Nordic and EU region are eligible to apply for funding. Private companies may be included as project participants, participate in the project group, or be a supplier to the project on behalf of the owner.
The tenderer is encouraged to form a consortium across the Nordic countries and to apply for the entire project package together.
1. Understanding of the assignment. The coherence of the work plan and methods, that is, the coherence between the objectives (as defined in this request for tenders), the proposed activities, and expected results: 35 %
2. Competence, qualifications, and experience of the project team within this field: 35 %
3. Offered price: 20 %
4. Self-financing or other external funding of work package 1: 5 %
5. Established consortium for the whole work package 1: 5 %
Deliverables and schedule
In the tender, the contractor must describe how they intend to solve the assignment.
Project managers should clearly articulate their objectives, specify how the parts of the work packages will be organised and delivered. The implementation process must be described, including the methods and networks the applicants intend to use.
In addition, a more detailed description of the activities, budget and schedule in the form of an inception document should be presented to the Steering Committee in the start-up phase of the project. Also to show that the parts can be completed within the proposed timetable.
Progress reports should be provided in autumn and spring as a basis for status meetings between the project group and the Steering Committee.
The timetable of the work package is July 2022 – December 2024
Time of delivery of final report: deadline 30 September 2024.
The schedule for delivery of reports from the different parts of the project suggests:
Part 1: Q4 2022
Part 2a: Q2 2023
Part 2b: Q1 2024
Part 2c: Q2 2024
Final project report: Q3 2024
The report will be published as a TemaNord publication. The programme coordinator for the programme Marine management and climate will assist in this. The final report should be delivered electronically in English language with additional summary in at least one Scandinavian language. Communication material (if produced) should include relevant logos and acknowledgement of the Nordic Council of Ministers (agreed with the project coordinator).
In addition, publication of the results in peer-reviewed journals is desirable.
Total budget: Max 3 600 000 DKK excluding Value Added Tax.
A guidance to the distribution of funds between the sub-parts of the work package is the emphasis on the effort which the Steering Committee envisages:
Part 1: 10%
Part 2a and 2 b: together 60%
Part 2c: 30%
Working hours, costs for experts who are expected to be included in the project, publication of projects and other costs for the assignment, including travel and meeting activities must be included in the budget. Other meeting solutions than physical, such as digital platforms that reduce travel is encouraged.
The tenderer is expected to participate and contribute at the kick-off meeting for the programme in September 2022 and at the final conference for the programme in the fall of 2024.